No Government, No Problem

Don't let the above picture alarm you. Nor should you let the New York Times headline, "Hezbollah Topples Lebanese Government," make you too nervous. Yes, it is true that Hezbollah engineered the failure of the government. On Wednesday afternoon the Syrian/Iranian-backed March 8th coalition (which includes Hezbollah) pulled its members out of the cabinet, thus forcing the Saudi/U.S.-backed Prime Minister, Saad Hairiri, to resign.

Poor Saad Hairiri (whose poster hangs on the right). It's got to be embarrassing to have your cabinet resign on you just minutes before you meet with President Obama while in Washington, D.C. And all of this over the investigation of your father's murder (whose poster hangs on the left). This is the stuff of a Shakespearean tragedy.

But despite all of that, we're happy to report that there has NOT been a coup d'etat in Lebanon. As the U.S. Embassy said in an email to school employees, "We are moving ahead with business as usual with no changes in our operating procedures. We consider this a constitutional change of government, a common event in parliamentary democracies."

This was taken the morning after the government failed on our walk to work. Snow still covered the top of Mount Sannine in the distance, people were still out for their morning jog, and there were only a few more armored cars patrolling the Corniche than usual.

Most Lebanese and veteran expats living in Lebanon seem to share the Embassy's opinion. Except they will qualify each statement of calm with a foreboding, "...but you never know."

For example, Wade was grading papers in his classroom around 4 pm on Wednesday, when a colleague came in with the news about the government collapsing. This colleague, a wonderful women who came of age during 15 years of civil war and a series of foreign invasions, then calmly added, "I don't think there's going to be a war."

And that's the consensus among teenagers, who may lack the perspective of the adults but have still seen their fair share of instability. Wade brought up politics with his advisory group on Thursday, the day after the government failed. Two of the eight juniors didn't know anything about it. The other six seemed bored by the topic. One advisee explained that he only gets nervous when his mom forbids him to go outside -- like when he was in 8th grade and Hezbollah attacked Hamra or when he was in 6th grade and Israel bombed Beirut or when he was in 5th grade and Syria started blowing up Lebanese politicians with car bombs. Last night, he explained, was no big deal. The only advisee missing, who stayed home because of nervous parents, was an American.

Outside of school, things on the ground seem perfectly normal. Last night, after a pleasant evening eating out with a friend, we exited to the scene pictured above. Hamra Street was bristling with business. Clearly, the Lebanese feel perfectly comfortable in a government-less society -- these people are the libertarians of the Middle East.

The question is what happens next. Our Lebanese friends and colleagues, when you ask them, will role their eyes and say that you can't predict anything about the future of Lebanese politics. Then they will argue for hours about what scenario is most likely to unfold. The one thing that everyone agrees on is that we'll have to wait and see.